Week 2 Results
Terrible fires that have swept through huge areas of Australia and have been truly devastating, millions of animals have been killed, many homes ruined and worst of all, multiple deaths. It is great to hear of the rain that has hit Australia over the last few days. Nature has a strange way of dealing with these situations…
I have decided to donate 10% of whatever I earn over the course of the AUS Open to help with the Fire relief mission.
This weeks blog will be predominantly based around my thoughts of the Australian Open. Before I get into that I just want to document my progress to date.
This week’s profits where slightly low and came in at £321.39. Total profit now £944.32. Bank stands at £1144.32. The main reason for the drop in profits was the lack of matches I traded. I wrote about the Betfair latency issue that affected the number of games I was willing to trade. You can take a look at that post HERE. Fortunately, they seem to have sorted out a tempory fix.
Australian Open Outright betting
I have taken the below screenshot from oddschecker as a point of reference. Any bets I do have will be struck on the Betfair exchange.
Looking at the top of the market, it aligns fairly well with what I would expect. The only price that jumps out at me as being too big is Federer around the 11/1 mark. I would imagine he will trade considerably shorter during the tournament and I will be trying to take advantage of that. I think he has around a 50% chance of getting to the semi-finals.
Looking at bigger priced selections I have backed Sinner at 300 and I have thrown a £10 on Wawrinka at 110. Again hoping to trade these positions out for a profit or at least to remove my liability at some stage.
Australian Open – 1st Round Trading Plan
I mentioned on Twitter that I would share my trade plan for the first round If I had enough Interest, I was blown away by the interest that tweet received!
Below are the top 6 matches I am interested in trading in the 1st round. I will be trading more but these are the matches and trades I feel more confident in. Good luck If you follow but I cannot guarantee any of these suggestions will come true!
- Nadal V Dellien – Here I just think that Nadal is a few ticks too short. I have an order in the queue trying to lay Nadal at 1.01, I will only be looking for 3-5 ticks profit here but think there is a decent chance that he will trade that high. (around 40% chance) I will be leaving all profit on Nadal after the trade.
- Dzumhur v Wawrinka – At the current prices I think Wawrinka is probably a few ticks too short but the play I really like here is laying Dzumhur if he manages to win the first set. If he goes on to lead a set and a break I will lay again. I will exit the trade on either a break back from Wawrinka or at the end of the 2nd set.
- Donskoy v Verdasco – I think the prices are correct for this match but I am interested in backing Verdasco in play at a higher price. I will try and back him around the even money mark if he loses the first set, I will then have around 1/2 stake on again if he is to go two sets down or around the 4.0 mark. I will be looking to make about 80% return on my total stake so that will determine my exit.
- Medvedev v Tiafoe – I’m sure Medvedev will get this done relatively easily but if he is priced around the 1.02/3 price after winning the first set I will be more than happy to lay him at that price. If Tiafoe can manage to take the second set or at least go a break-up, I’m sure Medvedev’s price will be around the 1.18/20 mark. A good risk v return ratio.
- Carballes Baena v Berankis – Here I am happy to take on either player when leading, I plan on laying each of these players multiple times throughout the match. I wouldn’t be shocked If this went 5 sets with both players trading at very short odds during the match. I particularly like laying the player serving for the match/and or when a break up in the 5th set.
- Struff v Djokovic – For me, the Djokovic price is far too short here. My play here will be laying Djokovic in the Outright market before this match and trading out if he goes on to win the match. I don’t think there is ANY downside to this trade when he is priced so shortly in the match odds market. Struff can certainly play and I wouldn’t be too shocked if he took a set off Djokovic, despite Djokovic’s recent form. I will also be laying Djokovic in the match odds market and trying to take 8-10 ticks profit from it.
Australian Open Spread Bets
I will be posting several spread bets over the course of the Australian Open and the rest of the year. They have proved to be a nice little earner over the years and im planning on replicating that this year. You will need an account if you want to follow me in. I recommend using SpreadEx as they generally have the best prices and they currently have a very generous sign up offer. Take a look HERE (I also get a little commission which helps with the upkeep of the blog)
Thanks for reading and I look forward to interacting with you guys over the next fortnight on Twitter! Hope you all have a great AUS Open!